Economic Overview:

• Goldman’s GDP growth projection for 2025 now sits at 1.7%, down from 2.4% at the start of the year. That’s because the firm now sees the average U.S. tariff rate rising by 10 basis points this year, twice Goldman’s previous forecast.
• February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased in February, calming some fears about the health of the US economy during a rocky few weeks for markets. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.8% over the prior year in February, below January 3% annual gain and ahead of economist expectations of a 2.9% annual increase.
• There is about a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year and a risk of lasting damage to the country’s standing as an investment destination if the administration undermines trust in U.S. governance, according to J.P. Morgan’s chief economist.  “Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the U.S. economy,” Bruce Kasman, the U.S. investment bank’s chief global economist.

Commercial Real Estate Market Overview:

• According to JLL, the economic outlook for the remainder of 2025 is broadly positive despite persistent uncertainty. Benchmark debt costs have tightened financial conditions over recent months, while risks remain from geopolitics and policy shifts, supply chain disruptions and the potential for a resurgence in inflation. While there are plenty of challenges, there are also reasons for optimism as labor markets are still tight, unemployment rates low and real wage growth positive.
• Office attendance for 10 large U.S. cities averaged 54.5% of pre-pandemic levels for the week ended March 5, reaching a new peak in tracking by Kastle Systems. It comes as large companies have increasingly been ramping up in-office work requirements while scaling back on remote and hybrid arrangements.