Economic Overview: As of August 2023 YTD, the economy continued to grow, although the pace has clearly slowed. Still, real GDP growth is positive; changes in nonfarm payrolls remain above trend rates; unemployment rates remain near the lowest levels since the 1960s; and consumers are becoming a bit more optimistic. As per Goldman Sachs. The […]

Economic Overview: US annual inflation slowed to 3% last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday (July 12th) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that is a sharp cooldown from June of last year, when surging energy costs helped inflation spike to 9.1% Inflation, as measured by the CPI, has now eased […]

Economic Overview: The Federal Reserve held rates steady in June, keeping the benchmark funds rate at a range of 5% to 5.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he doesn’t see a rate cut until inflation comes down meaningfully and significantly, and that can take a couple of years. Over the past several weeks markets have […]

Economic Overview: The US economy has performed better than expected through the first part of the year, with 1Q GDP growth up an estimated 3.25%. This has largely been driven by consumer spending – which drives nearly two thirds of economic activity – amid a backdrop of rising wages, moderating inflation and $1.2 trillion of […]

Economic Overview: Markets are assessing the timing and odds of recession and are increasingly optimistic that a soft-landing scenario is plausible based on surprisingly strong domestic data, China re-opening, and Euro-zone resilience. Soft-landing, hard-landing, or no-landing—remains to be seen, but the latest wave of domestic data suggests the Fed has more work to do to […]

2023 will resemble many actions like in the water cycle, circulation and volatility in weather and markets, evaporation in equity from higher interest rates and rising cap rates.  Capital will be available just as precipitation in the water cycle but how much dry powder will be the big question. Economic Overview: As the Federal Reserve […]

Commercial Real Estate Overview: As expected the Fed increased the Fed Funds Rate 50 basis points (pbs), for a combined 425 bps of tightening’s in 2022, it is now forecast the rate to go above 5% during 2023 with 3 more hikes likely. The Fed moderated its aggressive tightening while still signaling to the market […]

Commercial  Real Estate Overview Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is likely to slow the pace of rate increases to 50 bps in December after this week’s 75 bps hike, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The funds rate is likely to rise to a higher peak than policymakers had previously projected. […]